Four Thoughts about the Oscars

Mostly about Barbie

We’re almost two weeks away from the Oscars, and I’ve barely said a word about them. Time to break my silence. Here are my takeaways on this year’s Oscar nominations. As it turns out, most of them are about Barbie, not because it’s my favorite film of the year (far from it) but because its nominations, and lack thereof, raise interesting questions about where the Oscars stand in 2024. 

Here goes.

(Also, I published full predictions over at The Rye Record, and I’m giving a virtual talk on the past, present, and future of the Oscars again this year for Smithsonian Associates. Sign up here!)

The Robbie Snub

Can I be honest? I hate the term “snub.” It implies that the Academy is a monolith that collectively turns its back on a particular film or artist. That’s not what happens. The nominations are an expression of the whims and preferences of a diverse group of over 10,000 individuals on that particular day. So when Margot Robbie went un-nominated for her performance in Barbie, it wasn’t really a snub, especially since she earned a nomination for Best Picture as one of the film’s producers. She has been nominated before. Clearly, the Academy likes her. Who doesn’t?

The real story here is that Best Actress has, over the past few years, become the Oscars’ most competitive category. It wasn’t always that way. I remember back in the ‘90s when the acting branch really had to stretch to fill it out. There was almost always a middle-aged British actress from a film I had never heard of. No offense to middle-aged British actresses intended, but their inclusion revealed an embarrassing paucity of good roles for women in Hollywood films.

That hasn’t been the case in recent years, and certainly not this year. I’d be hard-pressed to remove any of this year’s Best Actress nominees to make room for Robbie. Lily Gladstone, Sandra Huller, Emma Stone, and Carey Mulligan were always locks. Some would argue that Annette Bening could be removed, but I liked Nyad more than others, and the physicality of her performance shouldn’t be underrated. Plus, Bening is so overdue for an Oscar that they should just keep nominating her until it becomes too embarrassing to bear, and they finally let her win one. So the Robbie snub isn’t a snub at all. It’s the result of an embarrassment of riches.

The Gerwig Snub

This situation is a little different. On the one hand, it’s not a snub when any director of a Best Picture nominee doesn’t make the final five in Best Director. Do the math: 10 Best Picture nominees and five Best Director nominees. Somebody’s feelings are gonna get hurt. Actually, several somebodies. 

Having said that, there is a case for a Gerwig bias. She was nominated in this category for her debut film Lady Bird, but her two most recent films—Little Women and Barbie—were both nominated for Best Picture, while Gerwig was left out of Best Director. Is it just math? Probably not. Rumor has it that the Directing Branch, which does the nominating, is overwhelmingly male and especially international. Despite the surge in films directed by women, they have never nominated more than one woman per year in this category. They’re also known to be a bit snobbish about films that make a lot of money. Is it possible this group has a bias against a blonde, American woman director of a comedy that made a billion dollars? Yes, it’s possible, but I don’t think Gerwig is hurting right now. After all, there’s the aforementioned billion dollar gross, and Gerwig was recognized in Adapted Screenplay. But her absence here is, let’s say, conspicuous.

It’s a problem that should be examined. Perhaps the Academy should make an effort to add more women to the branch. The problem, of course, is that not enough women have been given the opportunity to direct at a level that would typically merit inclusion, so it may take some time to rectify. Regardless, it’s something the Academy needs to look at.

America Ferrera

To be honest, I don’t think Ferrera’s performance in Barbie is particularly Oscar-worthy. Everyone loves her big speech about society’s impossible expectations for women, but I liked it better as the “Cool Girl” monologue in Gone Girl. Still, her nomination matters. She is only the 13th Latina ever nominated for an acting Oscar, and the ones who have been nominated  in the past have not gotten the post-Oscars career boost that White actors typically receive. The list of nominated Latinas include names such as Fernanda Montenegro (Central Station), Catalina Sandino Moreno (Maria Full of Grace), Marina de Tavira (Roma), Adriana Barraza (Babel), and Yalitza Aparicio (Roma). Great performances all, but when was the last time you got excited about the latest Catalina Sandino Moreno blockbuster? 

Even those whose names you know—like Salma Hayek and Ana De Armas—continued having difficulties landing serious, awards-worthy leading roles after their nominations.

Ferrera is in a better position to capitalize on her nomination than many others. She already has an acclaimed career, having won an Emmy, Golden Globe, and SAG Award for the tv show Ugly Betty. While her film career hasn’t exactly measured up, this nomination has certainly improved her stature and visibility. It could lead to bigger things in film for her, which would make for a rare trajectory for Latinas in the acting categories.

The tightest races

In an odd turnaround, the Supporting categories have become painfully predictable in recent years, while Best Actor and Best Actress have come down to the wire. The same holds true in 2023, with Robert Downey, Jr. and Da’Vine Joy Randolph locked into wins, and Paul Giamatti/Cillian Murphy and Emma Stone/Lily Gladstone battling it out in the lead categories. There’s no good explanation for why this is happening, so let’s just try to figure out who’s going to win.

Giamatti and Murphy have been splitting the precursors. They each won a Golden Globes, which divides its leading acting performances into Drama and Comedy or Musical. Giamatti won the Critics’ Choice, but Murphy won the BAFTA. Since BAFTA actually shares membership with the Academy, it’s fair to assume Murphy is in the lead. We’ll know more after the SAG Awards, the final precursors, but I’m still betting on Giamatti. He has worked more in Hollywood than Murphy has (Murphy lives on an island off the coast of Ireland and works frequently in British and Irish cinema), and he’s extremely well-liked. He simply has more friends in the Academy than Murphy, and despite the power of Oppenheimer, I think this is ultimately a popularity contest.

As for Best Actress, Gladstone was the presumed frontrunner for months, but Stone has been quietly racking up precursors. The arguments on both sides are clear, although not equally valid. It’s impossible to imagine Poor Things without Stone, who created a distinct character while baring herself emotionally and physically. She is reaching rarified air in Hollywood as a former ingenue who has become a capital-A artist. Once the object of male nerd lust in Superbad, Easy A, and the Spider-Man movies, Stone then catapulted to leading lady status as screen partner to Ryan Gosling in Crazy, Stupid Love, Gangster Squad, and La La Land. Now she is doing her own thing, making unapologetically feminist art on a massive scale. Her trajectory is the best-case scenario for actresses in the #MeToo era. She’s beloved and important at once.

Having said that, it’s equally impossible to imagine Killers of the Flower Moon without Gladstone, who has limited screen time in the film but casts a large shadow through her riveting presence and performance. She’s the center around which Killers revolve, and both Martin Scorsese and Leonardo DiCaprio have thrown their weight behind her campaign. Plus, Emma Stone already has an Oscar, and this is a great opportunity to elevate Gladstone’s career. A win for Gladstone would be important in a way that it wouldn’t for Stone, as she would be the first Indigenous actor to even win an Oscar.

But I suspect the Academy won’t be able to say no to Emma’s bravura work in Poor Things, and she’ll take the Oscar. Passing over Gladstone just seems like something the Academy would do. Every time we think they’ve evolved, they show us that some things never change.

AMA

Have any lingering questions or thoughts about this year’s Oscars? Ask me anything in the comments, and don’t forget to sign up for my virtual Smithsonian talk on March 8. It’ll be a hoot.